在線閱讀 --自然科學版 2021年3期《華北地區近65a氣候變化及其與相關因子關系分析》
華北地區近65a氣候變化及其與相關因子關系分析--[在線閱讀]
陳永金, 馬勝蘭, 許婕, 郭雯雯, 賈一燦, 趙體俠
聊城大學 環境與規劃學院, 山東 聊城 252000
起止頁碼: 314--324頁
DOI: 10.13763/j.cnki.jhebnu.nse.202105005
摘要
基于1951-2015年中國華北地區16個常規地面站的觀測資料,利用線性傾向估計、克里金插值法等方法研究了近65a中國華北地區的氣溫及降水的年度和季度變化情況,并與厄爾尼諾/拉尼娜、太陽黑子進行了相關性分析.結果表明,近65a華北地區氣溫降水分別呈波動上升和下降的趨勢,太陽黑子數與氣溫、降水的變化呈現出一定的相關性,且表現為負相關,厄爾尼諾/拉尼娜也對氣候變化有一定的影響,厄爾尼諾事件發生年增溫且降水減少,拉尼娜事件發生年降溫且降水增加,其中通過降水量的變化對預測厄爾尼諾/拉尼娜現象有一定的幫助,這為華北地區旱澇災害預警提供了科學依據.

Analysis on Climate Change and Related Factors in North China in Recent 65 Years
CHEN Yongjin, MA Shenglan, XU Jie, GUO Wenwen, JIA Yican, ZHAO Tixia
College of Environment and Planning, Liaocheng University, Shandong Liaocheng 252000, China
Abstract:
Based on the data of 16 conventional ground stations in North China from 1951 to 2015,the annual and seasonal changes of temperature and precipitation in North China in recent 65 years were studied,using methods of linear trend estimation and Kriging interpolation.The relationships between variations in temperature and precipitation with El Niño/La Niña and numbers of sunspots were analyzed.The results showed that in the past 65 years,air temperature and precipitation in North China fluctuated upward and downward respectively.The number of sunspots showed certain negative correlation with temperature and precipitation.El Niño/La Niña also had certain impact on climate change.The annual temperature increased and precipitation decreasd in El Niño events,and annual temperatured decreased and precipitation increased in La Niña events.Among them,the change of precipitation was helpful to predict El Nino/La Niña phenomenon,which provided scientific basis for early warning of drought and flood disasters in North China.

收稿日期: 2020-01-12
基金項目: 國家科技支撐計劃項目(2014BAC15B02);國家自然科學基金(40871239,40901276);國家級大學生創新訓練項目(201810447023,201910447022)

參考文獻:
[1]IPCC.Climate Change 2013:The Physical Science Basis[M].Cambridge:Cambridge University Press,2013.
[2]董李麗,李清泉,丁一匯.全球變暖背景下我國春季氣溫的時空變化特征[J].氣象,2015,41(10):1177-1189.doi:10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2015.10.001 DONG Lili,LI Qingquan,DING Yihui.Spatial and Temporal Characteristics of Air Temperature over China in Spring Under the Background of Global Warming[J].Meteorological Monthly,2015,41(10):1177-1189.
[3]蘇京志,溫敏,丁一匯,等.全球變暖趨緩研究進展[J].大氣科學,2016,40(6):1143-1153.doi:10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.1512.15242 SU Jingzhi,WEN Min,DING Yihui,et al.Hiatus of Global Warming:A Review[J].Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences,2016,40(6):1143-1153.
[4]杜勤勤,張明軍,王圣杰,等.中國氣溫變化對全球變暖停滯的響應[J].地理學報,2018,73(9):1748-1764.doi:10.11821/dlxb201809011 DU Qinqin,ZHANG Mingjun,WANG Shengjie,et al.Changes in Air Temperature of China in Response to Global Warming Hiatus[J].Acta Geographica Sinica,2018,73(9):1748-1764.
[5]夏軍,石衛,張利平,等.氣候變化對防洪安全影響研究面臨的機遇與挑戰[J].四川大學學報,2016,48(2):8-13.doi:10.15961/j.jsuese.2016.02.002 XIA Jun,SHI Wei,ZHANG Liping,et al.Opportunity and Challenge of the Climatic Impact on Flood Protection[J].Journal of Sichuan University,2016,48(2):8-13.
[6]佟金鶴.1965-2014年我國溫度和降水變化趨勢分析[J].安徽農業科學,2016,44(12):229-235.doi:10.3969/j.issn.0517-6611.2016.12.076 TONG Jinhe.Analysis of Temperature and Precipitation Change Trend in China During 1965 to 2014[J].Journal of Anhui Agri,2016,44(12):229-235.
[7]STOCKERT F,QIN Dahe,PLATTNER G K,et al.The Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change[M].United Kingdom and New York:Cambridge University Press,2013:1-40.
[8]ELOISE K,WANG Jinxia,DAVID J,et al.Can Urbanization Solve Inter-sector Water Conflicts? Insight from a Case Study in Hebei Province,North China Plain[J].Water Policy,2007,9(Supplement 1):75-93.
[9]龔宇,王聰玲,王璞.區域農業用水驅動因子及驅動貢獻評估分析——以河北滄州為例[J].節水灌溉,2008(8):1-4.doi:10.3969/j.issn.1007-4929.2008.08.001 GONG Yu,WANG Congling,WANG Pu.Regional Agricultural Water Driver Factors and Contribution Ratio Analysis for Cangzhou District of Hebei Province[J].Water Saving Irrigation,2008(8):1-4.
[10]丁一匯.中國的氣候變化及其預測[M].北京:氣象出版社,2016. DING Yihui.China's Climatic Change and Prediction[M].Beijing:China Meteorological Press,2016.
[11]王長燕,趙景波,李小燕.華北地區氣候暖干化的農業適應性對策研究[J].干旱區地理,2006,29(5):647-652.doi:10.3321/j.issn.1000-6060.2006.05.005 WANG Changyan,ZHAO Jingbo,LI Xiaoyan.Study on Agricultural Adaptation to Warming and Drying Climate in North China[J].Arid Land Geograpgy,2006,29(5):647-652.
[12]遆晉松,楊雨豪,張力,等.華北棉區棉花需水量時空變化研究[J].中國農業大學學報,2018,23(10):29-40.doi:10.11841/j.issn.1007-4333.2018.10.04 TI Jinsong,YANG Yuhao,ZHANG Li,et al.Temporal and Spatial Variation of Water Requirement of Cotton in Cotton-growing Area of North China Region[J].Journal of China Agricultural University,2018,23(10):29-40.
[13]王翼,蔣大凱,張英娟.華北地區極端氣候事件的時空變化規律分析[J].中國農業氣象,2012,33(2):166-173.doi:10.3969/j.issn.1000-6362.2012.02.002 WANG Yi,JIANG Dakai,ZHANG Yingjuan.Analysis on Spatial and Temporal Variation of Extreme Climate Events in North China[J].Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology,2012,33(2):166-173.
[14]林學椿,于淑秋.近40年我國氣候趨勢[J].氣象,1990,16(10):16-21.doi:10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.1990.10.003 LIN Xuechun,YU Shuqiu.Climatic Trend in China for the Last 40 Years[J].Meteorological Monthly,1990,16(10):16-21.
[15]季薔薇.華北地區降水變化的相關分析[J].學術研究,2014(21):240-241.doi:10.3969/j.issn.1671-2064.2014.21.182 JI Qiangwei.Study on the Change of Precipitation in North China[J].China Science & Technology Overview,2014(21):240-241.
[16]付建,王小熙.1981-2015年華北地區氣溫變化特征及防災減災對策[J].現代農業科技,2018(13):223-223. FU Jian,WANG Xiaoxi.Characteristics of Temperature Change and Countermeasures for Disaster Prevention and Reduction in North China from 1981 to 2015[J].Modern Agricultural Sciences and Technology,2018(13):223-223.
[17]張丹,胡萬里,劉宏斌,等.華北地區地膜殘留及典型覆膜作物殘膜系數[J].農業工程學報,2016,32(3):1-5.doi:10.11975/j.issn.1002-6819.2016.03.001 ZHANG Dan,HU Wanli,LIU Hongbin,et al.Characteristic of Residual Mulching Film and Residual Coefficient of Typical Crops in North China[J].Transactions of the Chinese Society of Agricultural Engineering,2016,32(3):1-5.
[18]劉斌,孫艷玲,王中良,等.華北地區植被覆蓋變化及其影響因子的相對作用分析[J].自然資源學報,2015,30(1):12-23.doi:10.11849/zrzyxb.2015.01.002 LIU Bin,SUN Yanling,WANG Zhongliang,et al.Analysis of the Vegetation Cover Change and the Relative Role of Its Influencing Factors in North China[J].Journal of Natural Resources,2015,30(1):12-23.
[19]趙舒怡,宮兆寧,劉旭穎.2001-2013年華北地區植被覆蓋度與干旱條件的相關分析[J].地理學報,2015,70(5):717-729.doi:10.11821/dlxb201505004 ZHAO Shuyi,GONG Zhaoning,LIU Xuying.Correlation Analysis Between Vegetation Coverage and Climate Drought Conditions in North China During 2001-2013[J].Acta Geographic Sinica,2015,70(5):717-729.
[20]逯孝強,陳永金,海建航,等.浙江省1951-2013年氣候變化研究[J].曲阜師范大學學報(自然科學版),2016,42(3):83-89.doi:10.3969/j.issn.1001-5337.2016.3.083 LU Xiaoqiang,CHEN Yongjin,HAI Jianhang,et al.Study on the Climate Change of Zhejiang Province During 1951-2013[J].Journal of Qufu Normal University(Natural Science),2016,42(3):83-89.
[21]覃平陽,吳國燦.1951-2015年濰坊市降水特征分析[J].現代農業科技,2019(10):158-161. QIN Pingyang,WU Guocan.Analysis of Precipitation Characteristic in Weifang City During 1951-2015[J].Modern Agricultural Science and Technology,2019(10):158-161.
[22]徐娟,魏明建.華北地區百年氣候變化規律分析[J].首都師范大學學報(自然科學版),2006,27(4):79-82.doi:10.19789/j.1004-9398.2006.04.017 XU Juan,WEI Mingjian.The Climate Change Features in the Last 100 Years[J].Journal of Capital Normal University(Natural Science),2006,27(4):79-82.
[23]高歌,李維京,張強.華北地區氣候變化對水資源的影響及2003年水資源預評估[J].氣象,2003,29(8):26-30.doi:10.3969/j.issn.1000-0526.2003.08.006 GAO Ge,LI Weijing,ZHANG Qiang.Climatic Change and Its Impact on Water Sources and Water Resources Pre-assessment in 2003 in North China[J].Meteorological Monthly,2003,29(8):26-30.
[24]馬黎華.華北地區ENSO年夏冬兩季月降水量的時間序列模擬分析[J].華北水利水電大學學報,2018,39(2):69-73.doi:10.3969/j.issn.1002-5634.2018.02.011 MA Lihua.Simulation for Time Series of Monthly Precipitation in Summer and Winter During ENSO Period in North China[J].Journal of North China University of Water Resources and Electric Power,2018,39(2):69-73.
[25]朱文卓.厄爾尼諾和拉尼娜現象[J].經貿實踐,2016(23):240-240. ZHU Wenzhuo.El Niño and La Niña[J].Economic Practice,2016(23):240-240.
[26]張沖,趙景波.厄爾尼諾/拉尼娜事件對陜西氣候的影響[J].陜西師范大學學報(自然科學版),2010,38(5):98-104.doi:10.15983/j.cnki.jsnu.2010.05.011 ZHANG Chong,ZHAO Jingbo.Effects of El Niño:Southern Oscillation Events on Climate in Shaanxi Province[J]. Journal of Shaanxi Normal University(Natural Science),2010,38(5):98-104.
[27]臧增亮,包軍,趙建宇,等.ENSO對東亞夏季風和我國夏季降水的影響研究進展[J].解放軍理工大學學報,2005,6(4):394-398.doi:10.7666/j.issn.1009-3443.20050421 ZANG Zengliang,BAO Jun,ZHAO Jianyu,et al.Recent Progresses of Studies on Influence of ENSO on the East Asian Summer Monsoon and China Summer Rainfall[J].Joural of PLA University of Science and Technology,2005,6(4):394-398.
[28]陶詩言,張慶云.亞洲冬夏季風對ENSO事件的響應[J].大氣科學,1998(4):399-407. TAO Shiyan,ZHANG Qingyun.Response of the Asian Winter and Summer Monsoon to ENSO Events[J].Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences,1998(4):399-407.
[29]陳文,丁碩毅,馮娟,等.不同類型ENSO對東亞季風的影響和機理研究進展[J].大氣科學,2018,42(3):640-655.doi:10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.1801.17248 CHEN Wen,DING Shuoyi,FENG Juan,et al.Progress in the Study of Impacts of Different Types of ENSO on the East Asian Monsoon and Their Mechanisms[J].Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences,2018,42(3):640-655.
午夜神器成在线人成在线人-午夜神器A片免费看